About

Sardonic Capital is a macro stress-testing tool. You paste a trading thesis — like "long gold because the Fed will cut" — and we tell you why it might be wrong.

Behind the scenes, we've built a knowledge base of 1,400+ economic models — things like "if the Fed cuts while inflation is sticky, gold rallies but the dollar doesn't collapse because of X" — by studying how real experts think about markets. The kind of analysis that doesn't show up in a Bloomberg terminal.

When you submit a thesis, we match it against these models and return a structured breakdown: attack vectors, hidden assumptions, evidence gaps, and historical parallels. Every claim traces back to a specific framework — not generic AI output.

What the stress test returns

Attack Vectors — Specific ways your thesis breaks. Each one rated fatal, serious, or minor — with the mechanism behind it and a historical parallel.

Hidden Assumptions — What your thesis needs to be true to work. If any of these are wrong, the trade logic falls apart.

Evidence Gaps — Data points and conditions you should verify before sizing the position.

What Would Change My Mind — Conditions that would upgrade or downgrade the verdict. Useful as monitoring triggers.

Historical Parallels — Each attack is grounded in a named historical episode — not vague analogies, but specific events with documented mechanics.

The final verdict is FRAGILE, MIXED, or ROBUST. If we can't find a fatal flaw, we say so.

Coverage

21 categories across 6 macro domains. Each mechanism is modeled with triggers, reasoning chains, historical examples, and contradiction patterns.

Core Macro Mechanisms

Monetary Policy & Central Banking—Rate transmissionQE/QT mechanicsYield curve controlFinancial repression

Credit & Banking—Credit creationDebt deflationBalance sheet recessionCredit spreads

Shadow Banking & Plumbing—Repo mechanicsEurodollar systemCollateral chainsTreasury functioning

Fiscal Policy—Fiscal dominanceDebt sustainabilityMMT constraintsFiscal multipliers

Inflation & Deflation—Demand-pull vs cost-pushWage-price spiralsShelter/OERStagflation

Asset Class Mechanics

Rates & Bonds—Term premiumDuration riskConvexitySupply/demand dynamics

Equities—Earnings yield frameworksBuybacksIndex concentrationPassive flows

FX & Currency—Dollar funding dynamicsCarry tradesCurrency crisis mechanicsDe-dollarization

Commodities—Inventory cyclesEnergy as input costOPEC+ dynamicsEnergy transition

Real Estate—Mortgage rate sensitivityLock-in effectCRE vs residentialAffordability math

Market Structure

Options & Derivatives—Gamma exposureVol cycles0DTE mechanicsConvexity flows

Passive & Flows—Index inclusion effectsPrice-insensitive buyingRebalancingReflexivity

Liquidity & Microstructure—Bid-ask stress signalsFlash crashesDealer constraints

Global & Geopolitical

Trade—Current account identityTariff pass-throughSupply chain reordering

China—Investment-led growth constraintsProperty sectorCapital controlsDemographics

Europe—Euro architecture flawsTarget2 imbalancesCore vs periphery

Japan—Balance sheet recessionYCC exit risksYen carry trade

Emerging Markets—Original sin (FX debt)Sudden stopsDollar transmission

Crisis Mechanics

Historical Patterns—1929 debt deflation1970s stagflation1997 Asia2008 GFC2022 UK gilts

Crisis Taxonomy—Liquidity vs solvencyBank run mechanicsContagion channelsMoral hazard

Behavioral & Narrative

Reflexivity & Crowd Dynamics—Self-fulfilling dynamicsCrowded tradesCareer risk herding"This time is different"

Work in progress

This is an active project. We're constantly expanding coverage, improving grounding accuracy, and refining the output. Things will break. If you run into issues or have feedback, DM us on @SardonicCapital.

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